* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/25/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 48 55 62 65 68 70 71 73 75 80 84 88 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 48 55 62 65 68 70 71 54 48 52 57 61 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 48 55 61 64 66 65 64 50 44 48 54 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 5 3 10 4 11 16 11 15 18 8 8 7 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 2 4 0 -2 0 -8 -3 0 -6 0 -5 0 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 138 117 65 43 8 352 317 289 250 253 214 246 209 246 188 355 10 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 144 146 147 149 150 152 156 155 152 152 157 160 159 160 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 144 144 146 147 149 149 150 153 152 146 144 148 150 148 149 154 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 42 40 38 39 41 43 45 49 48 50 50 53 55 57 61 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 11 8 8 7 6 4 3 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 39 28 18 18 16 9 13 12 11 21 17 5 3 -16 -12 -47 -19 200 MB DIV -5 -14 -26 -23 -7 -10 -9 27 10 28 42 -4 12 7 16 6 27 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -7 -6 -5 -3 0 1 -2 0 0 2 -5 -5 -10 -13 -12 LAND (KM) 714 685 657 651 664 569 406 380 489 280 110 61 -39 22 115 108 108 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.5 11.7 12.3 13.1 14.1 15.1 16.0 17.0 17.9 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.7 50.8 51.8 52.8 53.9 56.0 58.1 60.1 62.2 64.3 66.3 68.1 69.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 15 16 20 34 44 38 50 46 65 79 73 55 57 59 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -10. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 20. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. 38. 40. 45. 49. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.8 49.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.89 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.73 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 17.9% 11.2% 7.8% 7.0% 10.4% 19.8% 26.6% Logistic: 6.7% 29.6% 24.7% 13.6% 7.0% 18.3% 18.9% 25.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 11.6% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% Consensus: 4.5% 19.7% 13.0% 7.2% 4.7% 9.9% 13.2% 17.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 43 48 55 62 65 68 70 71 54 48 52 57 61 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 45 52 59 62 65 67 68 51 45 49 54 58 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 40 47 54 57 60 62 63 46 40 44 49 53 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 39 46 49 52 54 55 38 32 36 41 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT