* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL042019 08/23/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 32 33 33 35 37 38 39 38 39 40 42 46 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 32 33 33 35 37 38 39 38 39 40 42 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 31 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 8 6 3 8 15 13 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 -3 -3 0 3 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 278 301 55 121 157 186 215 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.8 26.3 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.9 26.9 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 110 114 118 115 115 120 120 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 92 91 93 96 93 92 96 96 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.4 0.3 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 36 37 38 37 36 34 38 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 6 6 5 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -97 -91 -75 -84 -88 -99 -113 -54 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -64 -50 -48 -44 -33 -10 -2 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -13 -8 -4 -2 -2 0 -1 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1323 1394 1466 1508 1551 1551 1497 1417 1338 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.0 37.5 37.0 36.6 36.1 35.8 36.0 36.7 37.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.1 41.6 41.1 41.1 41.0 41.5 42.2 42.5 42.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 5 3 2 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 12 CX,CY: 11/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 10. 12. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 38.0 42.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042019 CHANTAL 08/23/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.32 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -47.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 4.4% 4.4% 1.0% 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042019 CHANTAL 08/23/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042019 CHANTAL 08/23/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 31 32 33 33 35 37 38 39 38 39 40 42 46 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 30 31 32 32 34 36 37 38 37 38 39 41 45 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 28 29 29 31 33 34 35 34 35 36 38 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 23 23 25 27 28 29 28 29 30 32 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT