* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP102019 08/22/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 53 51 48 46 43 36 28 17 17 16 17 19 19 20 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 53 51 48 46 43 36 28 17 17 16 17 19 19 20 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 55 53 47 40 34 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 22 24 22 19 12 2 6 10 17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 11 10 6 4 3 0 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 40 40 50 49 48 40 330 202 170 166 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.4 26.8 24.9 23.1 21.6 20.4 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 157 152 148 132 112 93 77 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 73 69 66 62 60 59 56 55 48 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 25 25 24 23 23 20 17 15 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 92 71 67 53 31 3 -22 -28 -16 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 60 44 33 38 -2 -30 -21 -6 -12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -18 -31 -27 -7 -4 0 0 6 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 884 862 851 825 808 703 650 585 532 538 533 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.4 17.0 17.8 18.5 20.2 22.0 23.8 25.5 27.1 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.5 115.2 115.7 116.2 117.0 117.9 118.8 119.7 120.4 121.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 24 22 16 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 438 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. -7. -11. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -19. -27. -38. -38. -39. -38. -36. -36. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.8 113.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102019 IVO 08/22/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 8.9% Logistic: 0.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102019 IVO 08/22/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##