* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL042019 08/21/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 38 41 44 46 45 43 41 39 38 39 40 41 43 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 38 41 44 46 45 43 41 39 38 39 40 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 36 37 40 42 43 42 41 39 38 38 39 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 21 21 16 15 10 4 12 19 18 19 17 12 9 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -7 -6 -4 -5 -3 -2 2 5 7 -5 -4 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 242 251 250 241 244 197 145 170 198 206 213 234 255 297 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.8 24.1 25.0 25.6 26.8 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.2 26.6 26.8 25.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 114 100 106 111 121 122 121 122 121 118 113 117 119 109 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 98 87 91 94 99 99 98 98 97 95 92 93 94 87 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -54.7 -54.2 -53.5 -52.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -53.1 -54.2 -54.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 3 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 34 32 34 34 33 39 41 38 38 44 46 44 45 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -75 -96 -110 -123 -113 -101 -87 -79 -100 -105 -81 -27 -52 -70 -70 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -26 -19 -10 -11 -19 -40 -37 -21 -13 -3 4 5 -15 -4 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -17 -21 -8 -15 -3 -3 0 0 0 -3 4 0 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 712 763 846 959 1081 1293 1434 1511 1514 1472 1405 1305 1255 1237 1207 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.3 40.1 39.9 39.5 39.0 37.9 36.8 35.9 35.5 35.6 36.1 37.1 37.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.6 50.5 48.4 46.7 45.0 42.8 42.0 42.1 42.8 43.5 43.9 44.0 43.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 12 8 5 4 3 3 4 5 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 2 3 2 2 0 2 3 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 17 CX,CY: 17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 40.3 52.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042019 CHANTAL 08/21/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.37 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 343.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.27 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 7.1% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 4.1% 3.4% 0.9% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.7% 2.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042019 CHANTAL 08/21/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042019 CHANTAL 08/21/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 37 38 41 44 46 45 43 41 39 38 39 40 41 43 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 36 39 42 44 43 41 39 37 36 37 38 39 41 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 36 39 41 40 38 36 34 33 34 35 36 38 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 32 34 33 31 29 27 26 27 28 29 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT