* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL042019 08/21/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 39 42 45 48 48 45 42 40 39 39 39 39 39 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 39 42 45 48 48 45 42 40 39 39 39 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 39 42 45 47 46 44 43 43 43 44 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 20 20 16 13 6 7 16 19 19 18 13 12 21 25 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -5 -5 -5 -8 -3 -3 0 4 1 0 -7 -3 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 252 251 248 253 257 234 219 143 148 185 210 206 221 241 247 234 241 SST (C) 26.6 25.6 25.7 24.0 24.7 26.8 27.0 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.0 26.0 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 123 113 113 100 104 122 123 121 124 124 123 119 114 110 109 115 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 97 97 87 90 102 101 98 101 100 99 95 92 88 88 92 94 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -54.6 -53.9 -53.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -52.6 -53.7 -54.5 -55.4 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 40 37 35 33 34 32 35 38 39 37 40 43 48 47 46 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -77 -90 -107 -120 -105 -97 -84 -89 -96 -108 -77 -17 -7 11 34 37 200 MB DIV -7 -24 -21 -9 -20 -14 -49 -36 -20 -15 -3 24 20 32 9 42 13 700-850 TADV -8 -2 -5 -20 -23 -11 -13 -3 -2 0 2 -5 4 5 17 7 19 LAND (KM) 717 712 744 839 953 1221 1420 1530 1557 1532 1478 1404 1345 1306 1264 1238 1218 LAT (DEG N) 40.3 40.3 40.3 40.0 39.6 38.3 36.9 35.7 35.0 34.8 35.1 35.8 36.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.8 52.6 50.4 48.4 46.5 43.5 42.1 42.1 42.9 43.9 44.5 44.6 44.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 15 14 11 7 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 2 3 2 4 5 4 2 1 0 0 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 19 CX,CY: 19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 10. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 40.3 54.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042019 CHANTAL 08/21/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.33 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 344.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 8.6% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 5.2% 4.2% 1.0% 0.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.6% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042019 CHANTAL 08/21/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042019 CHANTAL 08/21/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 39 39 42 45 48 48 45 42 40 39 39 39 39 39 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 36 39 42 45 45 42 39 37 36 36 36 36 36 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 35 38 41 41 38 35 33 32 32 32 32 32 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 28 31 34 34 31 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT