* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/02/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 59 56 54 49 42 35 28 20 16 17 18 18 18 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 59 56 54 49 42 35 28 20 16 17 18 18 18 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 60 58 55 48 42 36 31 25 22 20 19 19 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 13 18 21 15 30 33 38 40 32 25 22 12 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 0 0 5 2 2 -2 1 2 1 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 326 306 292 286 293 268 261 279 278 262 245 233 211 227 285 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.3 26.2 26.6 26.0 26.1 26.5 26.8 26.8 26.3 25.7 25.1 23.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 134 128 127 131 124 125 129 132 132 128 122 116 97 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.9 -54.6 -55.3 -55.4 -56.0 -55.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 58 58 59 59 59 62 61 64 69 68 64 60 59 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 18 16 14 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -25 -24 -24 -17 -14 -13 -18 -44 -21 4 -3 -18 -39 -23 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -10 -6 0 -7 15 15 11 24 28 65 36 35 17 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -2 0 1 -6 -3 4 6 4 17 19 23 17 16 13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2053 1884 1716 1558 1400 1109 829 564 350 276 367 584 882 1233 1586 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.5 21.9 23.9 26.3 29.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.6 137.2 138.7 140.2 141.6 144.3 146.9 149.4 151.6 153.5 154.7 155.2 155.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 12 14 15 16 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 13 5 1 0 8 0 0 2 4 5 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -18. -22. -24. -25. -26. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -17. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -6. -11. -18. -25. -32. -40. -44. -43. -42. -42. -42. -44. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.6 135.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/02/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.38 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.15 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 342.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 -2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 18.2% 13.9% 9.5% 8.9% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 6.4% 4.7% 3.2% 3.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/02/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##