* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/02/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 47 42 40 34 31 26 22 20 18 21 23 23 23 22 22 V (KT) LAND 60 54 47 42 40 34 31 26 22 20 18 21 23 23 23 22 22 V (KT) LGEM 60 54 48 44 40 35 31 28 26 24 24 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 36 36 36 34 40 41 47 41 34 19 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -4 2 -1 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 262 259 260 267 269 266 268 268 268 256 295 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 140 142 142 143 145 147 148 147 148 146 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 55 53 50 51 50 51 46 41 34 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 13 11 12 9 10 9 9 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 13 7 12 14 19 20 23 20 4 5 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 36 32 27 34 29 48 41 19 -28 -29 -24 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 11 9 8 8 2 4 6 5 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 389 321 308 341 415 493 504 571 664 762 854 955 1048 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.5 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.4 22.0 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.0 155.3 156.6 157.8 159.1 161.4 163.3 164.9 166.3 167.5 168.5 169.5 170.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 11 9 8 7 7 6 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 13 23 28 24 24 27 28 30 26 22 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -25. -31. -35. -36. -35. -33. -33. -34. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -18. -20. -26. -29. -34. -38. -40. -42. -39. -37. -37. -37. -38. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.8 154.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/02/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 366.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.02 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/02/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##