* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/01/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 72 64 58 52 42 33 30 26 24 20 20 19 19 20 20 21 V (KT) LAND 80 72 64 58 52 42 33 30 26 24 20 20 19 19 20 20 21 V (KT) LGEM 80 72 65 58 52 42 34 30 26 23 21 20 19 18 18 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 27 34 34 36 39 43 39 39 41 35 31 26 22 19 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 -1 -3 -2 -4 -1 4 -1 1 3 1 3 -1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 225 249 255 254 260 257 262 266 265 268 278 283 289 296 302 301 304 SST (C) 26.9 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 141 143 142 139 140 143 146 145 149 149 150 146 143 140 139 140 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -54.3 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 51 49 49 51 52 53 52 51 51 49 43 44 43 40 39 42 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 16 15 14 12 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 2 3 1 -2 0 4 5 14 16 24 24 23 10 -9 -30 -43 -59 200 MB DIV 12 13 19 21 30 37 14 46 38 38 -5 0 -32 -29 -30 -15 -14 700-850 TADV 8 7 10 10 11 10 7 4 5 1 -1 1 1 2 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 681 572 474 376 292 279 439 455 523 637 774 893 988 1058 1122 1191 1265 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 150.1 151.3 152.5 153.7 154.9 157.3 159.7 162.1 164.1 165.9 167.5 168.8 169.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 5 13 15 13 11 28 26 31 27 32 28 24 19 19 18 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. -26. -28. -30. -32. -34. -36. -36. -35. -33. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -13. -16. -15. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -22. -28. -38. -47. -50. -54. -56. -60. -60. -61. -61. -60. -60. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.3 150.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/01/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 524.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/01/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##