* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/31/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 93 87 80 65 52 40 34 32 29 27 25 23 22 24 26 V (KT) LAND 105 100 93 87 80 65 52 40 34 32 29 27 25 23 22 24 26 V (KT) LGEM 105 98 90 82 75 64 53 43 37 33 30 27 25 23 22 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 12 18 23 32 36 38 41 35 42 40 38 34 27 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 9 4 2 -1 -1 -4 -2 0 3 1 3 1 5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 242 230 218 222 246 255 261 263 266 263 266 276 287 290 307 314 327 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.9 27.9 27.4 27.3 27.6 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.3 28.4 28.4 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 139 141 144 144 139 138 140 145 149 150 146 147 148 143 139 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 55 51 53 55 55 55 56 54 56 55 53 48 49 47 45 46 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 18 18 17 14 14 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 9 5 2 6 3 -2 1 -2 0 11 11 9 25 10 -2 -21 -30 200 MB DIV 56 37 34 19 16 35 31 31 33 50 43 28 -3 -21 -55 -14 -13 700-850 TADV 7 9 7 5 5 12 10 7 6 7 3 5 1 4 0 4 2 LAND (KM) 1025 915 806 697 594 390 288 374 469 457 518 601 696 810 948 1114 1284 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.9 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.4 19.1 20.0 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 146.9 148.0 149.0 150.2 151.3 153.8 156.3 158.7 160.8 162.7 164.3 165.7 166.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 9 9 13 14 19 23 23 34 32 35 25 23 20 17 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -22. -28. -32. -35. -37. -37. -37. -37. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -18. -19. -19. -18. -19. -23. -27. -30. -31. -27. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -16. -19. -19. -20. -19. -18. -17. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -18. -25. -40. -53. -65. -71. -73. -76. -78. -80. -82. -83. -81. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.2 146.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/31/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.08 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 631.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.21 -0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 13.6% 8.8% 6.8% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 4.9% 3.1% 2.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/31/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##