* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/30/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 119 117 109 101 84 64 46 33 31 25 22 21 17 15 19 23 V (KT) LAND 115 119 117 109 101 84 64 46 33 31 25 22 21 17 15 19 23 V (KT) LGEM 115 119 115 108 99 83 68 55 45 38 33 31 29 28 26 25 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 10 10 12 16 33 38 37 34 37 37 43 51 44 31 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 3 7 9 2 -2 -2 0 0 0 -2 -5 -3 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 286 307 301 287 267 252 262 261 260 260 267 263 263 252 248 241 253 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.3 28.0 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.9 27.9 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 142 139 136 137 145 139 138 139 143 143 148 149 150 149 145 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 58 54 55 53 57 54 52 52 54 56 58 58 54 51 45 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 20 21 18 18 17 15 12 9 10 7 8 10 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 36 32 16 10 1 -1 3 0 0 10 14 21 18 24 27 18 0 200 MB DIV 50 85 57 25 18 30 15 25 35 32 43 69 75 11 8 -19 -9 700-850 TADV -1 1 5 8 11 8 8 5 6 3 3 2 4 3 2 1 2 LAND (KM) 1372 1247 1123 1012 901 689 477 309 293 412 466 488 559 670 793 945 1096 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.4 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 143.6 144.7 145.8 146.8 147.8 149.9 152.3 154.7 157.0 159.2 161.2 163.2 164.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 10 9 7 7 14 11 24 21 26 29 34 32 27 20 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -13. -21. -29. -36. -42. -46. -48. -48. -48. -49. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. -13. -11. -12. -16. -20. -26. -28. -25. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -9. -8. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 9. 13. 12. 11. 6. 2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -8. -14. -19. -19. -22. -19. -16. -16. -16. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 2. -6. -14. -31. -51. -69. -82. -84. -90. -93. -94. -98.-100. -96. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.4 143.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/30/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 626.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.2% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.4% 6.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/30/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##