* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/30/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 71 70 66 59 49 42 34 31 28 31 30 28 27 25 V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 71 70 66 59 49 42 34 31 28 31 30 28 27 25 V (KT) LGEM 70 71 72 71 69 65 58 50 43 36 32 29 28 27 26 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 16 16 15 13 16 30 33 32 29 30 27 32 45 45 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -6 -4 -2 4 8 1 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 0 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 256 271 291 308 311 289 256 264 258 256 255 269 264 260 248 250 246 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.2 27.3 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.4 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 144 142 142 136 137 144 141 137 138 142 143 147 150 150 148 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -54.0 -54.0 -54.8 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 62 62 60 58 56 55 56 55 54 53 57 57 59 60 59 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 21 21 20 18 15 13 10 10 8 10 9 7 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 23 31 32 22 9 -4 -4 -3 -6 -2 11 10 7 8 14 16 23 200 MB DIV 35 32 44 48 59 10 24 7 41 35 29 29 59 53 15 33 17 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -5 -5 -3 8 7 4 3 6 2 0 2 4 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1674 1534 1395 1265 1135 910 697 511 340 273 374 479 470 536 650 777 934 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.5 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.7 142.0 143.3 144.5 145.6 147.7 149.8 151.9 154.2 156.5 158.7 160.7 162.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 12 11 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 12 10 10 7 7 15 11 20 24 23 31 30 34 28 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -20. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -11. -15. -16. -18. -14. -13. -14. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -0. -4. -11. -21. -28. -36. -39. -42. -39. -40. -42. -43. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 12.9 140.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/30/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.39 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.29 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 20.5% 19.8% 15.2% 11.3% 13.2% 9.6% 6.7% Logistic: 4.5% 10.6% 3.7% 3.0% 3.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 11.0% 7.9% 6.1% 5.0% 4.7% 3.4% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/30/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##