* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/30/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 69 76 80 86 91 86 82 80 73 68 60 50 44 37 31 V (KT) LAND 55 62 69 76 80 86 91 86 82 80 73 68 60 50 44 37 31 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 66 71 74 80 84 85 84 80 74 66 57 49 41 33 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 9 10 6 12 14 16 13 12 10 21 24 30 30 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 8 -2 -2 -2 0 0 2 3 2 3 2 1 7 SHEAR DIR 20 1 358 337 325 314 353 360 355 331 321 305 302 293 277 270 252 SST (C) 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.4 27.8 27.6 26.5 27.1 26.3 25.9 26.5 26.0 26.0 26.5 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 152 154 155 150 143 142 130 136 128 124 130 124 124 129 134 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.8 -52.6 -53.2 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 73 70 71 69 63 58 54 51 51 54 55 60 59 60 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 22 21 21 25 24 25 28 26 27 25 23 22 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 12 22 15 8 8 21 30 24 17 21 10 12 15 28 30 15 -1 200 MB DIV 78 83 75 89 117 91 81 43 27 19 38 0 14 -8 -7 18 13 700-850 TADV -9 -11 -9 -12 -9 -6 -11 -16 -6 0 -3 -1 0 3 6 4 5 LAND (KM) 1397 1475 1561 1636 1698 1840 1986 2121 2285 2045 1747 1464 1170 870 616 386 169 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.3 14.0 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.1 118.5 119.8 121.1 122.3 124.9 127.4 130.1 132.9 135.7 138.4 141.0 143.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 14 18 24 33 42 17 13 15 1 23 2 0 3 0 0 2 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 7. 7. 9. 13. 10. 11. 7. 4. 3. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 25. 31. 36. 31. 27. 25. 18. 13. 5. -5. -11. -18. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.3 117.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/30/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 12.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 10.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 10.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 10.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 13.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 10.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -9.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 1.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 78% is 6.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 56% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.4% 78.3% 65.8% 54.9% 43.7% 56.3% 40.2% 17.1% Logistic: 36.0% 63.1% 51.5% 45.2% 17.1% 27.5% 5.6% 2.0% Bayesian: 37.2% 73.3% 64.5% 51.2% 6.2% 35.5% 6.9% 0.0% Consensus: 34.2% 71.6% 60.6% 50.4% 22.4% 39.8% 17.6% 6.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/30/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##