* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/29/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 64 68 71 73 71 66 64 59 56 51 45 39 34 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 64 68 71 73 71 66 64 59 56 51 45 39 34 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 58 62 66 67 68 67 65 63 60 56 52 45 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 8 8 13 16 15 13 18 15 16 16 21 24 27 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 3 0 0 3 0 1 0 -2 0 1 0 5 3 4 5 SHEAR DIR 344 340 352 334 336 299 322 358 1 345 339 314 310 288 283 265 267 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.0 27.6 27.4 26.7 26.9 26.3 26.3 26.0 25.9 26.4 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 150 152 154 151 145 141 140 132 134 128 128 125 123 128 131 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 73 72 73 72 70 67 60 55 53 50 50 49 53 55 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 20 20 19 19 20 18 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 9 15 22 14 14 21 29 35 13 18 7 10 9 20 12 13 2 200 MB DIV 64 77 87 95 105 115 88 77 20 12 7 -15 -3 -12 -1 11 0 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -9 -8 -11 -11 -9 -16 -9 -7 -4 -7 -1 0 1 1 4 LAND (KM) 1294 1375 1467 1546 1632 1761 1902 2058 2207 2219 1910 1602 1294 979 713 491 261 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.5 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.2 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.5 117.0 118.4 119.7 121.0 123.6 126.1 128.7 131.4 134.2 137.0 139.8 142.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 13 13 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 34 14 17 23 32 30 13 14 7 8 19 1 1 0 0 1 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 16. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 26. 21. 19. 14. 11. 6. 0. -6. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.5 115.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/29/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.65 9.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 50.3% 38.5% 26.0% 17.6% 42.2% 44.0% 27.0% Logistic: 17.9% 40.7% 30.0% 21.8% 6.9% 16.6% 6.9% 3.2% Bayesian: 18.1% 46.6% 32.2% 14.0% 3.5% 20.4% 8.8% 0.4% Consensus: 17.2% 45.9% 33.6% 20.6% 9.3% 26.4% 19.9% 10.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/29/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##