* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/29/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 53 59 65 73 75 75 77 72 69 64 63 57 52 46 38 V (KT) LAND 40 46 53 59 65 73 75 75 77 72 69 64 63 57 52 46 38 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 55 60 67 70 72 73 72 70 67 64 60 54 47 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 4 6 7 9 17 13 17 11 14 13 17 20 29 24 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 2 1 7 -1 2 -2 1 -1 1 0 -1 0 6 4 SHEAR DIR 9 337 347 328 319 303 323 351 7 352 340 311 313 298 298 284 278 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.6 26.5 27.2 26.5 26.2 26.5 26.0 26.3 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 148 151 152 154 150 144 141 130 138 130 127 130 124 127 132 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 72 72 74 73 72 70 69 62 58 54 50 50 51 53 53 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 17 18 20 19 19 22 21 21 20 22 21 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR -3 6 17 24 17 16 26 28 20 21 24 18 15 16 25 22 13 200 MB DIV 62 68 87 89 85 108 64 75 78 40 25 44 -17 5 1 0 -2 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -6 -8 -9 -8 -7 -7 -5 -3 -6 -1 -1 3 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 1215 1282 1358 1443 1538 1681 1824 1987 2144 2315 2031 1700 1393 1092 812 545 281 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 13.0 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.4 16.2 17.0 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.8 115.4 116.9 118.3 119.7 122.3 124.9 127.5 130.2 133.0 135.9 138.9 141.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 14 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 29 42 14 16 22 41 17 13 14 1 25 4 0 5 0 1 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 10. 8. 9. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 25. 33. 35. 35. 37. 32. 29. 24. 23. 17. 12. 6. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.5 113.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/29/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 11.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 9.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -7.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 53% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.4% 59.4% 46.2% 31.3% 20.5% 50.3% 52.8% 45.4% Logistic: 30.2% 62.6% 52.6% 43.8% 17.1% 36.7% 15.8% 6.7% Bayesian: 22.3% 67.0% 48.9% 27.5% 11.0% 45.2% 24.8% 0.7% Consensus: 24.3% 63.0% 49.2% 34.2% 16.2% 44.1% 31.2% 17.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/29/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##