* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072019 07/29/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 47 54 65 74 78 85 85 84 82 79 75 70 65 56 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 47 54 65 74 78 85 85 84 82 79 75 70 65 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 44 54 64 72 77 82 83 79 76 70 63 56 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 6 3 6 5 6 12 20 13 17 12 16 17 27 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -3 5 8 0 0 0 0 -2 1 0 0 -1 8 SHEAR DIR 349 2 6 15 36 357 316 304 344 12 355 334 335 305 304 302 282 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.6 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.0 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.0 26.6 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 152 152 152 156 154 152 146 137 135 132 125 131 127 128 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 74 73 74 73 70 70 66 59 61 61 63 64 67 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 18 21 21 24 26 26 26 27 27 26 26 23 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -6 0 9 22 19 10 26 15 4 -1 -7 -14 -8 -3 6 1 200 MB DIV 38 33 49 81 103 89 63 88 94 54 28 -1 24 10 16 12 0 700-850 TADV 5 0 -1 -1 -1 -6 -10 -7 -8 -12 -2 0 1 0 5 9 14 LAND (KM) 974 1076 1197 1271 1335 1509 1682 1819 1982 2147 2317 2120 1801 1469 1175 905 625 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.7 13.1 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.6 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.1 111.8 113.5 115.0 116.5 119.3 121.9 124.4 127.0 129.7 132.5 135.2 138.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 14 13 13 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 24 24 42 19 21 47 24 17 17 5 19 19 0 6 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31. 32. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 13. 15. 16. 15. 14. 13. 11. 10. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 24. 35. 44. 48. 55. 55. 54. 52. 50. 45. 40. 35. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.1 110.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072019 SEVEN 07/29/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 8.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 41.0% 27.4% 19.6% 0.0% 32.6% 41.1% 54.4% Logistic: 19.1% 62.3% 45.5% 35.8% 15.0% 49.4% 34.7% 30.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 46.4% 23.8% 9.2% 1.5% 23.9% 21.1% 3.4% Consensus: 11.3% 49.9% 32.2% 21.6% 5.5% 35.3% 32.3% 29.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 SEVEN 07/29/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##