* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/28/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 50 57 61 62 59 55 49 46 41 38 36 33 31 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 50 57 61 62 59 55 49 46 41 38 36 33 31 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 40 44 48 50 51 48 43 39 35 31 29 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 2 2 1 5 8 10 14 11 21 23 30 26 30 31 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 4 3 -5 -2 2 3 6 3 1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 283 253 192 192 189 212 226 238 269 254 258 262 271 266 269 270 272 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.9 27.2 27.0 26.5 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.6 28.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 152 150 147 144 144 137 135 129 135 137 137 137 141 145 150 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 58 58 57 57 59 59 53 53 52 53 54 56 58 59 59 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 14 15 16 17 17 16 15 14 13 10 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 3 11 10 12 5 11 24 16 7 -3 -4 -8 -8 -2 0 0 10 200 MB DIV 64 63 80 54 32 9 43 52 25 -12 -9 1 11 14 14 21 7 700-850 TADV -9 -12 -10 -7 -4 -1 -2 -1 1 8 3 4 1 5 3 4 3 LAND (KM) 2257 2355 2441 2410 2258 1952 1672 1408 1140 888 631 404 227 197 383 391 523 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.0 15.7 16.3 16.7 16.9 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.1 130.5 131.9 133.3 134.7 137.5 140.0 142.4 144.8 147.1 149.6 152.1 154.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 21 16 12 10 20 19 11 6 3 5 8 11 28 28 31 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24. 24. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. -0. -2. -4. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 22. 26. 27. 24. 20. 14. 11. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.2 129.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/28/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.74 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.96 8.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.66 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 52.3% 31.4% 20.1% 14.5% 22.8% 26.2% 14.8% Logistic: 44.0% 77.4% 70.0% 64.1% 12.6% 49.6% 12.1% 5.4% Bayesian: 4.4% 8.2% 1.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 20.9% 46.0% 34.5% 28.4% 9.1% 24.2% 12.8% 6.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/28/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##