* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052019 07/22/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 33 33 32 30 25 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 33 33 32 30 25 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 26 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 15 15 15 14 16 13 12 7 6 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 1 0 -2 -4 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 28 14 15 11 348 321 287 276 257 211 179 169 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.0 24.8 23.9 23.8 23.6 22.8 22.0 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 136 134 122 109 100 99 97 89 80 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 71 70 71 69 69 60 57 52 46 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 44 37 35 39 30 32 11 3 -18 -31 -28 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 34 34 17 22 14 -3 -9 -1 -7 -16 -9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 0 0 3 2 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1055 993 936 895 837 764 744 784 803 835 901 970 1062 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.3 17.1 17.9 18.6 19.8 20.9 21.7 22.4 23.0 23.6 24.3 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.3 116.4 116.5 116.7 116.9 117.4 118.2 119.2 120.3 121.4 122.7 123.9 125.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 6 4 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 14. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. -24. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 116.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052019 FIVE 07/22/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.16 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 13.2% 11.5% 7.9% 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.6% 3.9% 2.7% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052019 FIVE 07/22/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##