* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022019 07/12/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 55 56 54 50 49 47 44 40 40 36 36 35 35 36 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 55 56 37 30 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 59 59 39 30 28 27 27 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP SUBT EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 20 18 24 24 23 26 28 18 11 10 11 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 4 8 1 5 -2 6 -1 4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 8 353 346 350 325 312 289 291 272 338 321 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.1 29.8 30.2 30.1 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 30.0 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 164 170 170 161 159 158 160 170 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 146 141 137 144 140 132 130 128 130 137 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 7 6 10 5 9 3 9 1 11 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 58 55 56 60 59 56 53 55 59 58 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 23 24 23 21 20 18 14 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 33 10 -15 -25 -2 -37 -42 -93 -79 -67 -77 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 29 39 0 -17 41 20 91 25 0 29 -4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -12 -1 4 4 3 -2 3 10 3 15 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 112 83 49 25 4 -86 -232 -360 -484 -609 -728 -873 -968 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.4 28.7 29.1 29.5 30.6 31.9 33.1 34.5 35.8 37.1 38.6 40.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.2 90.6 90.9 91.2 91.5 92.1 92.3 92.3 91.9 91.2 89.9 88.2 86.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 34 33 33 33 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -20. -23. -25. -25. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -10. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.1 90.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 BARRY 07/12/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.24 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.58 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 14.6% 9.2% 6.5% 5.5% 8.0% 8.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 1.2% 1.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 2.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 6.4% 3.7% 2.4% 1.9% 3.1% 3.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 BARRY 07/12/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 BARRY 07/12/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 55 55 56 37 30 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 50 49 51 51 52 33 26 24 23 23 23 24 25 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 47 28 21 19 18 18 18 19 20 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT