* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022019 07/12/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 49 50 50 51 47 46 43 41 38 37 34 35 36 37 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 49 50 44 34 29 27 27 27 27 28 28 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 50 52 47 35 29 27 27 27 27 28 28 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT EXTP SUBT N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 23 16 16 24 28 27 26 18 11 8 11 15 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 2 3 3 8 3 3 6 0 7 0 1 0 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 17 3 9 3 347 344 319 299 292 301 275 10 353 356 342 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.9 31.1 30.5 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 30.0 29.8 29.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 169 169 169 164 162 160 161 161 161 168 164 152 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 146 150 155 161 149 136 135 131 131 130 130 134 130 120 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 9 10 6 9 5 9 3 9 2 12 4 15 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 59 60 59 58 58 60 58 55 53 54 58 57 58 57 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 21 21 22 22 20 18 17 14 11 9 7 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 30 29 27 12 -20 -11 -57 -45 -104 -77 -69 -64 -52 -55 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 41 25 32 53 5 26 28 86 1 7 33 -4 4 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 -7 -1 -1 6 7 1 8 0 18 30 16 31 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 138 129 114 85 59 -4 -91 -211 -333 -449 -581 -685 -784 -851 -822 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.6 29.5 30.6 31.8 33.1 34.3 35.6 36.8 37.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.2 89.6 90.0 90.3 90.7 91.3 91.6 91.7 91.7 91.4 90.6 89.4 88.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 42 39 37 36 33 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -6. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. -1. -3. -6. -11. -16. -19. -22. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -6. -5. -4. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 27.8 89.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 BARRY 07/12/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.39 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.74 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 21.9% 11.7% 7.7% 6.9% 9.2% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 8.2% 3.8% 0.9% 0.2% 2.2% 2.5% 1.0% Bayesian: 2.3% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 11.0% 5.4% 2.9% 2.4% 3.9% 4.4% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 BARRY 07/12/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 BARRY 07/12/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 47 49 50 44 34 29 27 27 27 27 28 28 29 29 29 18HR AGO 40 39 43 45 46 40 30 25 23 23 23 23 24 24 25 25 25 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 33 23 18 16 16 16 16 17 17 18 18 18 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT