* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032019 07/07/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 27 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 27 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 7 12 15 20 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 6 3 1 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 319 313 304 282 282 305 295 293 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.4 24.7 24.2 23.9 23.9 23.3 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 115 108 102 99 100 93 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 54 50 48 46 39 36 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 10 10 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -21 -21 -34 -32 -33 -32 -37 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 33 33 22 10 -17 -28 -15 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 6 5 4 5 0 3 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 986 994 1007 1023 1042 1067 1079 1123 1184 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.3 20.9 21.4 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.8 119.4 119.9 120.4 120.8 121.6 122.5 123.6 124.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -10. -15. -22. -28. -33. -35. -36. -38. -40. -43. -44. -47. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.3 118.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032019 COSME 07/07/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.02 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032019 COSME 07/07/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##