* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032019 07/06/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 41 38 36 33 29 24 19 19 20 19 19 18 16 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 41 38 36 33 29 24 19 19 20 19 19 18 16 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 41 39 35 32 29 25 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 7 5 8 6 5 7 9 13 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 2 -1 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 332 318 330 334 9 304 316 308 308 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.2 25.0 24.6 24.6 23.9 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 137 137 135 133 124 111 107 107 100 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 58 56 53 49 41 37 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 16 15 13 12 11 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -5 -3 -16 -20 -18 -21 -16 -24 -27 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 74 63 46 38 33 -11 -26 -12 -18 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 11 5 1 1 3 5 0 2 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 987 1022 1066 1070 1081 1090 1100 1128 1148 1191 1250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.4 19.2 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.8 117.8 118.5 119.2 120.3 121.1 122.0 122.9 124.0 125.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -16. -21. -26. -26. -25. -26. -26. -27. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.9 115.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032019 COSME 07/06/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032019 COSME 07/06/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##