* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/04/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 107 100 93 82 66 49 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 107 100 93 82 66 49 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 106 96 86 76 59 45 32 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 9 15 15 18 24 32 31 34 26 18 17 13 6 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 5 10 11 15 9 5 6 7 2 -4 -3 -5 -1 -8 SHEAR DIR 171 163 221 226 233 230 228 245 244 249 271 292 309 319 281 271 248 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.0 25.7 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.3 25.5 26.2 26.6 27.3 27.7 28.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 133 129 123 121 116 116 118 118 120 127 132 139 143 148 155 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 63 61 58 56 56 56 50 45 41 38 34 38 37 40 39 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 34 30 29 25 20 17 13 10 9 8 6 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 37 48 37 29 27 24 20 7 -4 -11 -24 -5 -1 7 1 -1 -5 200 MB DIV 137 144 91 41 31 -3 2 -9 -6 -12 -39 -45 -2 -24 -1 -8 24 700-850 TADV 8 10 12 11 11 12 21 4 3 0 -8 -6 -2 -4 0 -7 -1 LAND (KM) 1991 2007 2027 2041 2059 2149 2048 1783 1500 1185 851 524 210 80 347 460 713 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.7 16.3 16.9 18.0 18.7 19.0 19.0 19.0 18.9 18.6 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.0 128.9 129.7 130.5 131.2 133.1 135.3 137.8 140.5 143.5 146.7 149.9 153.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 15 15 15 16 15 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 19 29 27 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -28. -38. -46. -52. -58. -61. -62. -63. -63. -65. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -11. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -10. -19. -25. -31. -35. -34. -33. -32. -30. -28. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -22. -33. -49. -66. -82. -92.-103.-110.-112.-111.-110.-107.-104.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.6 128.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/04/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 570.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/04/19 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##