* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012019 06/27/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 53 49 45 33 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 55 53 49 45 33 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 55 52 48 42 32 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 16 17 19 21 25 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 6 8 4 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 228 233 245 241 235 237 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.4 25.8 25.1 24.4 23.5 23.7 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 122 115 107 97 98 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 64 63 61 51 43 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -22 -18 -25 -19 -21 -30 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 41 33 28 33 11 6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 10 15 13 20 21 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 834 828 844 859 858 929 1023 1085 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.0 20.0 20.5 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.7 115.8 116.8 117.8 119.7 121.2 122.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 11 9 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -6. -10. -22. -33. -44. -50. -54. -56. -57. -58. -59. -59. -60. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.2 113.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012019 ALVIN 06/27/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 7.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ALVIN 06/27/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##