* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012019 06/26/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 42 41 35 26 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 42 41 35 26 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 36 35 31 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 3 5 8 11 14 19 21 24 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -1 -3 -3 0 0 -2 -2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 115 122 172 190 167 198 198 204 205 238 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.0 28.4 28.0 27.3 27.0 25.8 25.0 24.8 24.3 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 156 150 146 138 134 121 113 110 105 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 61 58 57 56 53 52 43 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 14 12 8 6 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 15 -1 -15 -23 -26 -22 -16 -9 -17 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 54 39 31 25 19 23 15 4 -10 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -10 -8 -3 0 11 11 8 6 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 432 483 561 659 722 764 859 939 1037 1168 1293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.7 18.8 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.2 107.6 109.0 110.4 111.7 114.1 116.2 118.1 119.9 121.6 123.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 12 9 8 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 410 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -8. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 11. 5. -4. -15. -21. -22. -22. -22. -21. -23. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 106.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012019 ONE 06/26/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 24.2% 22.3% 16.8% 0.0% 17.5% 15.1% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 14.7% 11.6% 1.8% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 13.1% 11.3% 6.2% 1.4% 5.8% 5.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012019 ONE 06/26/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##