* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 42 39 36 31 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 46 42 39 36 31 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 48 46 43 40 34 29 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 31 28 25 24 22 26 31 36 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 8 5 0 -1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 228 237 235 232 239 230 230 224 231 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 138 138 139 140 136 134 132 129 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.4 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 -55.5 -55.8 -55.9 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 39 36 33 31 32 32 33 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 5 -20 -31 -31 -43 -32 -38 -31 -40 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 -11 -25 -22 -14 -15 -5 0 17 42 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 0 2 5 4 4 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 146 168 195 230 266 372 378 401 451 500 562 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.3 106.8 107.4 107.9 109.1 110.2 111.3 112.2 112.9 113.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 9 7 9 14 20 7 5 4 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -12. -17. -23. -27. -29. -31. -31. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -19. -24. -32. -37. -41. -43. -45. -46. -46. -46. -49. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.3 105.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 369.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##