* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 34 31 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 34 31 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 42 39 36 33 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 26 30 34 33 24 24 21 24 30 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 1 5 3 5 3 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 220 214 225 237 232 237 238 236 220 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 144 140 139 141 144 140 136 133 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.4 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.0 -55.3 -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 8 6 7 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 49 45 43 40 37 38 39 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 13 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 16 22 25 9 -22 -35 -39 -38 -41 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 37 21 14 0 -15 -13 -7 -10 21 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 3 5 4 3 5 4 7 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 206 184 164 180 206 288 389 446 461 501 569 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.3 105.6 105.8 106.3 106.7 107.8 109.0 110.3 111.5 112.6 113.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 16 13 9 8 14 23 11 7 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 9 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -26. -27. -27. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -14. -19. -25. -32. -37. -41. -46. -47. -46. -43. -42. -42. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.4 105.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.19 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##