* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 45 42 40 34 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 45 42 40 34 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 47 45 42 35 28 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 25 26 26 26 30 25 22 21 17 27 33 29 34 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 -3 -1 1 1 1 3 4 -1 -2 1 5 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 236 235 236 226 216 235 230 256 246 235 239 242 233 238 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.1 28.1 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 149 150 150 147 142 143 148 147 145 140 137 132 123 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -55.4 -55.4 -55.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 58 58 56 48 40 34 34 36 40 39 36 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 15 15 13 11 9 7 6 5 5 3 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 4 17 12 18 21 -18 -9 -26 -23 -40 -31 -39 -32 -22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 60 55 63 55 21 -26 -12 -27 -14 -18 3 41 26 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 5 2 2 2 3 0 5 5 7 4 5 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 455 405 355 318 280 251 273 321 420 535 611 626 618 594 571 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.7 18.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.3 106.0 105.7 105.7 105.6 105.8 106.4 107.1 108.3 109.7 111.1 112.3 113.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 3 2 3 5 6 7 6 5 3 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 21 22 18 13 14 19 16 14 11 8 5 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 19. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -21. -22. -23. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. -15. -16. -14. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -3. -5. -11. -19. -26. -31. -33. -35. -35. -36. -34. -35. -34. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.3 106.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/03/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##