* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/31/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 60 56 50 35 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 63 60 56 50 35 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 63 58 54 49 42 39 35 34 35 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 35 33 46 51 57 40 21 18 20 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 13 12 5 8 8 2 -3 -1 1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 192 193 180 181 194 193 179 180 194 192 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 18.8 21.4 18.9 16.0 11.9 9.4 10.1 9.3 8.3 7.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 81 90 81 75 71 69 69 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 76 82 76 72 69 67 67 67 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -52.9 -51.5 -48.9 -47.1 -47.0 -49.0 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 1.9 3.1 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.0 3.4 3.1 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 53 56 54 52 61 61 64 67 65 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 40 43 44 42 40 39 42 40 34 26 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 187 218 237 236 199 223 290 338 309 246 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 38 33 60 65 83 43 52 51 -26 -252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -50 -40 -60 -88 -99 -132 -97 11 13 -18 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 990 809 706 754 870 1279 1241 823 582 511 399 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.0 40.3 42.5 44.6 46.6 50.4 53.7 56.6 59.6 62.7 65.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.5 48.4 46.4 43.9 41.4 35.5 28.9 22.1 15.3 8.8 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 29 27 27 27 27 27 25 24 23 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 30 CX,CY: 15/ 26 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -22. -28. -33. -36. -40. -43. -47. -48. -49. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -17. -20. -22. -21. -23. -28. -33. -39. -42. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 0. -2. -8. -14. -19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. 1. -4. -12. -24. -24. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. 18. 20. 21. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -9. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -15. -30. -41. -51. -60. -71. -72. -76. -81. -91. -97.-101.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 38.0 50.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.1 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 60 56 50 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 61 57 51 36 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 57 51 36 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 49 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT