* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/31/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 62 60 57 44 35 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 63 62 60 57 44 35 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 64 62 59 54 44 40 38 35 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 41 38 33 45 54 52 23 20 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 12 12 8 10 5 0 -2 2 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 191 197 184 187 195 189 179 191 193 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.3 23.7 19.4 22.3 18.7 14.2 11.6 9.9 10.4 9.5 8.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 101 83 93 81 73 70 69 69 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 94 77 85 75 70 68 67 67 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.5 -52.6 -50.4 -47.4 -46.9 -47.5 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.7 0.9 2.0 2.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.4 2.9 2.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 51 53 52 59 61 58 65 69 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 39 43 43 43 39 41 43 37 29 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 141 187 219 245 243 190 235 315 314 298 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 34 25 30 49 67 78 80 51 15 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -46 -35 -51 -58 -96 -105 0 9 -30 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1257 1028 839 743 745 1038 1482 1049 717 501 502 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.4 37.7 39.9 42.0 44.1 47.9 51.3 54.4 57.4 60.2 62.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.4 50.5 48.6 46.4 44.3 38.9 32.7 26.1 19.6 13.3 7.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 27 27 26 26 27 26 24 23 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 24 CX,CY: 15/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -20. -26. -31. -35. -38. -42. -45. -46. -48. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -11. -18. -21. -23. -23. -25. -29. -33. -39. -43. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -7. -14. -19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 6. 6. 3. 6. 8. 1. -11. -21. -22. -22. -22. -22. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 19. 20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -8. -21. -30. -35. -43. -53. -66. -69. -75. -84. -92. -97.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 35.4 52.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 62 60 57 44 35 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 63 61 58 45 36 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 56 43 34 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 39 30 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT