* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/31/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 63 64 63 53 38 37 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 63 63 64 63 53 38 37 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 63 64 63 59 47 40 40 38 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 32 45 39 28 47 52 39 24 27 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 7 10 15 4 9 4 -2 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 199 188 195 187 190 193 183 193 190 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.3 23.7 21.5 22.1 17.7 13.4 9.5 10.9 9.7 9.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 99 101 90 93 79 72 69 69 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 91 93 83 85 74 70 68 67 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.0 -52.6 -50.5 -48.2 -48.2 -49.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.9 4.3 3.3 3.9 2.8 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 48 48 51 52 63 61 57 59 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 35 41 46 45 40 36 43 41 33 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 144 207 233 262 215 220 283 312 278 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 26 43 24 25 51 81 36 33 54 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -20 -60 -37 -48 -102 -129 -94 6 -21 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1463 1278 1060 876 757 886 1301 1213 770 561 431 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.1 35.2 37.3 39.5 41.6 45.6 49.3 52.8 56.0 58.9 61.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.5 52.7 50.9 48.8 46.8 41.6 35.2 28.2 21.5 15.3 9.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 26 26 27 27 28 28 27 24 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 18 CX,CY: 10/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -13. -18. -24. -29. -33. -36. -39. -43. -44. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -16. -21. -24. -24. -26. -31. -35. -41. -45. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -6. -12. -16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 5. 9. 10. 7. 4. 12. 9. -1. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. 19. 20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -7. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. -2. -12. -27. -28. -33. -42. -58. -61. -66. -75. -82. -87. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 33.1 54.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 63 64 63 53 38 37 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 64 65 64 54 39 38 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 61 51 36 35 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 44 29 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT