* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/31/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 65 66 67 60 47 38 37 35 24 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 66 65 66 67 60 47 38 37 35 24 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 67 66 68 66 55 44 40 40 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 29 32 43 39 41 51 51 26 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 3 6 11 6 10 4 -3 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 210 195 185 185 179 195 194 184 189 188 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 23.7 23.5 24.0 18.3 18.0 14.5 10.8 10.1 10.4 9.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 101 100 103 80 79 74 70 69 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 93 92 95 75 74 71 68 67 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -52.5 -51.2 -48.7 -47.9 -48.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.2 2.9 4.0 3.4 4.0 3.0 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 47 49 51 49 56 62 62 61 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 35 41 46 44 40 41 43 40 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 107 162 206 235 240 207 277 339 335 329 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 52 28 44 26 40 65 53 68 59 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 0 -8 -57 -49 -54 -115 -136 -32 1 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1546 1394 1212 984 798 724 1051 1487 996 660 418 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.8 33.8 35.8 38.0 40.2 44.4 48.2 51.8 54.8 57.4 60.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.0 54.4 52.8 50.8 48.9 44.4 38.7 32.0 25.3 18.5 11.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 24 26 27 27 27 28 27 24 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 18 CX,CY: 10/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -15. -21. -28. -34. -38. -42. -45. -48. -50. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -17. -23. -25. -24. -25. -28. -32. -36. -39. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 7. 11. 10. 8. 11. 14. 8. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 19. 20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -7. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -4. -3. -10. -23. -32. -33. -35. -46. -48. -53. -62. -69. -74. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 31.8 56.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 2( 6) 3( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 66 65 66 67 60 47 38 37 35 24 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 68 69 70 63 50 41 40 38 27 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 68 61 48 39 38 36 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 54 41 32 31 29 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT