* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/30/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 69 69 69 64 50 31 30 33 31 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 71 69 69 69 64 50 31 30 33 31 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 71 70 71 72 60 46 38 38 41 41 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 24 27 33 44 36 52 58 42 25 24 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -2 0 4 10 4 12 9 3 -4 0 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 203 207 194 187 167 195 202 198 207 196 195 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.4 23.8 23.5 24.0 19.6 15.4 11.8 9.5 9.9 9.3 8.7 6.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 101 100 103 84 75 71 69 69 67 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 95 93 93 95 78 71 69 68 67 66 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.6 -55.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.2 -52.6 -50.0 -48.3 -48.1 -48.7 -49.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.5 2.8 3.9 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.4 1.0 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 47 44 46 47 51 51 56 58 62 64 71 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 31 34 38 43 45 40 34 41 42 39 28 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 83 117 161 199 227 183 190 267 326 325 325 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 108 90 55 18 38 61 62 81 51 46 46 -6 -54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 32 10 -2 -9 -45 -90 -101 -153 -127 12 -14 -64 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1588 1519 1387 1195 973 667 856 1294 1222 832 609 495 487 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 32.1 33.8 36.0 38.1 42.7 46.9 50.6 54.1 57.3 60.0 62.3 64.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.3 56.0 54.6 52.8 50.9 46.8 41.5 35.3 28.7 21.8 15.5 9.7 3.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 24 26 27 28 28 27 26 23 20 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 15 CX,CY: 5/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 772 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -6. -10. -16. -24. -31. -38. -43. -48. -52. -56. -57. -59. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -17. -23. -28. -27. -27. -28. -30. -34. -37. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -6. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 7. 0. 8. 9. 4. -11. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 18. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -6. -6. -11. -25. -44. -45. -42. -44. -60. -75. -81. -86. -90. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 30.4 57.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 3( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 71 69 69 69 64 50 31 30 33 31 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 72 72 72 67 53 34 33 36 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 71 66 52 33 32 35 33 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 60 46 27 26 29 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT