* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/30/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 80 79 78 74 64 50 44 44 41 35 25 20 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 83 80 79 78 74 64 50 44 44 41 35 25 20 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 81 78 77 76 71 57 46 43 45 47 49 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 15 21 25 34 36 47 51 43 16 13 18 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 2 5 17 4 8 3 0 0 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 223 208 198 193 187 187 193 181 163 192 188 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 24.3 24.4 23.5 23.5 18.1 17.7 14.5 10.5 10.0 10.0 9.4 6.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 103 104 99 100 79 78 73 70 69 68 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 94 96 92 92 75 74 70 68 68 67 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.6 -55.6 -55.4 -54.5 -53.4 -52.8 -52.0 -50.1 -47.0 -47.0 -48.5 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.3 4.0 5.1 3.5 2.3 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 48 45 46 48 52 59 62 64 75 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 32 31 34 37 44 43 39 42 43 40 35 31 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 65 91 110 156 239 253 224 278 348 370 378 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 83 100 90 64 26 36 62 67 71 84 67 -10 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 34 34 16 -9 -17 -55 -51 -61 -104 24 20 -8 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1423 1619 1522 1372 1190 757 722 1058 1505 1004 746 521 579 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 30.6 32.1 34.1 36.0 40.6 44.8 48.4 51.9 55.4 58.5 61.3 64.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.0 57.0 55.9 54.3 52.7 48.9 44.2 38.6 32.3 25.4 18.8 12.5 6.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 18 21 24 25 27 27 27 27 25 22 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -20. -29. -39. -47. -53. -59. -63. -67. -68. -70. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -18. -22. -25. -22. -19. -18. -19. -21. -23. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -11. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 13. 10. 14. 14. 10. 3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 19. 20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -7. -11. -21. -35. -41. -41. -43. -50. -60. -65. -69. -74. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 29.0 58.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 448.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 7( 16) 6( 21) 5( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 83 80 79 78 74 64 50 44 44 41 35 25 20 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 81 80 79 75 65 51 45 45 42 36 26 21 17 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 80 79 75 65 51 45 45 42 36 26 21 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 70 60 46 40 40 37 31 21 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 62 52 38 32 32 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 83 74 68 65 62 52 38 32 32 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT