* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/29/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 77 78 80 84 88 85 74 60 54 47 43 24 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 77 77 78 80 84 88 85 74 60 54 47 43 24 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 78 79 80 80 78 78 70 56 47 42 39 34 31 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 21 17 19 16 21 30 39 48 60 60 56 59 54 56 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 2 5 0 9 19 10 16 16 21 2 10 28 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 333 312 287 259 252 209 195 206 206 218 244 269 313 319 304 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.0 24.7 23.4 23.2 21.7 18.4 16.3 15.6 14.3 14.3 13.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 122 122 115 106 99 98 90 78 73 71 68 67 66 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 105 106 108 103 97 91 90 82 73 69 67 64 63 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.2 -55.9 -55.6 -55.5 -55.4 -54.5 -53.6 -54.1 -54.9 -54.8 -56.1 -58.0 -57.3 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.5 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 52 54 55 57 49 43 43 50 43 37 36 55 65 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 27 27 28 31 34 40 43 39 35 37 38 40 32 32 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 82 74 62 51 85 146 179 212 126 -36 -159 -158 -43 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 38 56 62 77 88 29 30 34 26 -1 -6 -23 42 -6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 4 16 21 17 -1 -20 -1 -16 -76 -21 134 89 -65 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1136 1163 1193 1299 1405 1575 1301 924 885 1157 1494 1419 1141 953 765 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.3 26.8 27.8 28.8 31.5 35.0 39.1 42.4 44.7 46.3 47.3 48.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.1 58.4 58.6 58.3 58.0 56.0 52.6 48.5 43.7 38.4 33.2 28.6 25.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 10 13 19 24 25 24 21 18 14 11 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -15. -20. -26. -31. -36. -41. -47. -50. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. -13. -18. -24. -29. -34. -40. -45. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 13. 12. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 20. 17. 11. 13. 13. 15. 4. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 10. -1. -15. -21. -28. -32. -51. -59. -62. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 25.7 58.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.36 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 468.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.44 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.03 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 12.3% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.7% 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 5.0% 3.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 6( 11) 7( 17) 9( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 77 77 78 80 84 88 85 74 60 54 47 43 24 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 74 75 77 81 85 82 71 57 51 44 40 21 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 74 78 82 79 68 54 48 41 37 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 71 75 72 61 47 41 34 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT