* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/28/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 57 56 61 67 72 79 72 76 67 54 44 41 40 40 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 57 56 61 67 72 79 72 76 67 54 44 41 40 40 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 57 58 62 66 69 70 65 58 48 40 37 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 18 23 22 16 13 30 48 58 66 43 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -6 -3 -5 0 5 23 16 9 19 17 -1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 353 360 360 346 332 299 275 222 201 211 224 235 221 196 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.8 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.8 25.0 24.4 23.7 22.0 18.0 15.0 11.4 10.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 124 124 121 122 107 104 101 93 80 76 69 67 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 109 109 109 105 107 97 95 92 86 76 73 67 65 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -55.9 -55.9 -56.0 -56.3 -56.8 -56.1 -56.1 -54.7 -54.3 -54.5 -52.4 -49.4 -46.3 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.2 0.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 46 49 49 54 52 38 31 35 46 39 46 61 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 22 22 25 28 30 37 35 41 40 36 32 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 108 95 98 88 76 56 12 52 105 135 126 62 130 198 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -11 -17 -22 -13 23 51 75 -6 24 28 -1 45 3 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -5 0 -2 6 11 3 -4 -30 -26 -22 -3 -26 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1511 1415 1321 1277 1239 1295 1570 1463 1111 847 1025 1526 869 819 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.9 26.2 27.4 29.8 33.1 36.8 40.7 44.5 48.3 51.9 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.2 54.4 55.5 56.3 57.2 57.8 56.7 54.5 51.2 46.6 40.3 32.3 23.0 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 9 16 21 25 28 32 34 23 17 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 7 9 6 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -17. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -8. -14. -23. -29. -30. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 2. 4. 13. 10. 18. 15. 9. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 1. 6. 12. 17. 24. 17. 21. 12. -1. -11. -14. -15. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.4 53.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.45 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 370.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.23 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 11.4% 7.9% 6.3% 5.3% 7.5% 6.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 5.2% 3.6% 1.4% 0.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.6% 3.8% 2.6% 2.0% 2.8% 2.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 57 56 61 67 72 79 72 76 67 54 44 41 40 40 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 55 60 66 71 78 71 75 66 53 43 40 39 39 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 51 56 62 67 74 67 71 62 49 39 36 35 35 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 49 55 60 67 60 64 55 42 32 29 28 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT