* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILLA EP242018 10/22/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 138 131 119 109 87 67 49 32 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 140 138 131 119 109 73 42 32 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 140 136 126 114 102 71 41 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 16 13 22 35 44 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 2 2 6 0 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 229 216 216 219 206 241 234 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.4 28.8 28.4 25.7 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 152 156 158 153 150 122 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 6 5 5 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 66 65 65 62 54 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 22 18 16 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 20 22 28 25 52 63 31 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 71 48 43 65 88 31 0 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 5 0 -9 34 -9 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 236 195 163 138 132 -52 -342 -336 -104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.4 20.0 20.7 21.3 23.0 24.7 26.4 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.2 107.2 107.0 106.8 105.5 103.3 100.8 98.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 12 14 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 30 41 43 33 21 18 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -10. -18. -30. -43. -56. -64. -70. -73. -73. -74. -75. -78. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -11. -15. -17. -18. -19. -16. -16. -19. -23. -27. -29. -26. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. -1. -4. -6. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -5. -7. -14. -18. -24. -27. -27. -27. -25. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -9. -21. -31. -53. -73. -91.-108.-111.-116.-121.-125.-128.-130.-130.-127. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 18.7 107.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP242018 WILLA 10/22/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 494.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 WILLA 10/22/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##