* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICENTE EP232018 10/21/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 47 49 51 55 61 63 64 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 47 49 51 55 53 39 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 46 46 47 48 49 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 12 11 13 16 12 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 5 4 2 1 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 30 15 24 23 12 11 8 68 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.1 28.5 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 154 155 157 162 155 149 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 5 8 6 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 77 79 79 77 77 72 63 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -21 -26 21 36 24 14 0 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 47 39 54 78 64 99 120 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 0 0 -4 6 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 135 156 177 178 190 149 78 0 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.7 14.9 16.0 17.3 18.6 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.4 97.3 98.1 99.0 99.8 101.4 102.6 103.7 104.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 15 18 21 24 31 19 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 23. 25. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 18. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.5 96.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP232018 VICENTE 10/21/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.44 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 21.3% 20.1% 14.9% 10.8% 16.7% 17.2% 23.6% Logistic: 1.7% 10.3% 3.6% 2.1% 0.5% 2.4% 1.8% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% Consensus: 3.8% 10.9% 8.0% 5.7% 3.8% 6.4% 6.4% 8.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP232018 VICENTE 10/21/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##