* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYFOU EP242018 10/20/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 51 56 67 78 84 87 86 84 77 68 58 52 51 52 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 51 56 67 78 84 87 86 84 77 68 51 35 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 45 49 58 68 77 81 79 75 66 53 43 31 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 7 4 4 1 6 6 5 6 12 23 37 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -9 -7 -6 -5 -3 2 0 2 9 11 8 9 8 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 77 99 95 116 155 99 93 137 176 162 245 216 211 220 233 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.2 28.8 29.2 28.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 156 155 155 154 152 149 147 146 143 145 153 157 148 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 72 70 67 64 58 55 50 49 53 61 63 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 18 21 23 25 25 24 20 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -16 -5 -8 -17 -16 2 14 23 20 33 44 36 54 21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 41 59 83 87 88 48 51 33 44 27 47 65 67 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 1 2 0 6 6 0 -1 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 457 465 479 485 483 476 486 487 490 471 403 286 212 -15 -245 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.4 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.3 19.3 20.5 21.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.4 105.9 106.4 106.9 107.3 108.0 108.6 109.0 109.4 109.6 109.5 109.0 108.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 6 7 10 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 25 24 22 23 23 20 17 15 14 16 13 22 23 13 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 405 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. 2. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 18. 17. 10. 3. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 21. 32. 43. 49. 52. 51. 49. 42. 33. 23. 17. 16. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.7 105.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP242018 TWENTYFOU 10/20/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 38.8% 25.5% 19.0% 13.9% 31.0% 48.3% 53.5% Logistic: 13.9% 58.4% 38.4% 26.4% 36.2% 50.1% 66.4% 11.4% Bayesian: 2.6% 21.5% 7.0% 1.5% 3.0% 12.1% 13.8% 0.1% Consensus: 9.7% 39.6% 23.6% 15.6% 17.7% 31.1% 42.8% 21.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 TWENTYFOU 10/20/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##