* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICENTE EP232018 10/20/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 43 44 44 45 50 51 56 58 61 62 64 66 68 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 43 44 44 45 50 51 56 58 61 62 64 66 68 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 41 42 42 41 40 39 40 41 43 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 13 15 19 10 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 0 0 2 2 0 -4 -2 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 315 344 352 355 357 332 346 356 354 2 22 282 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.9 29.5 29.8 29.3 29.4 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 143 142 141 142 153 160 163 158 159 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 7 5 7 5 8 6 10 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 76 77 77 76 78 76 75 69 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -2 -4 -22 -26 -10 -22 -14 22 33 26 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 37 42 31 24 27 36 31 67 70 78 75 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 2 1 5 3 2 1 0 -3 0 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 99 135 176 225 275 316 301 277 257 189 86 15 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.2 12.9 13.1 13.6 14.5 15.9 17.5 19.2 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.4 93.0 93.5 94.0 94.5 95.7 97.1 98.7 100.4 102.0 103.5 105.0 106.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 6 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 8 7 6 7 18 32 35 19 25 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 15. 16. 21. 23. 26. 27. 29. 31. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.5 92.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP232018 VICENTE 10/20/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 26.4% 23.5% 17.8% 12.5% 19.6% 17.6% 17.1% Logistic: 4.1% 20.6% 10.1% 7.0% 1.8% 23.9% 39.8% 41.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 5.8% 16.6% 11.3% 8.3% 4.8% 14.5% 19.1% 19.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP232018 VICENTE 10/20/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##