* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TARA EP222018 10/16/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 30 30 33 36 39 41 42 43 45 47 48 49 48 47 V (KT) LAND 35 32 31 30 30 33 36 39 41 42 43 45 47 48 49 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 28 27 26 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 7 6 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 1 0 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 168 169 168 204 193 187 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 156 156 158 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 51 48 47 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 31 11 -7 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 50 32 23 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 0 2 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 39 35 41 49 57 87 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.7 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.1 105.3 105.5 105.7 106.2 106.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 22 24 27 29 35 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -5. -2. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.9 104.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222018 TARA 10/16/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.19 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 20.6% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 7.4% 6.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TARA 10/16/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##