* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TARA EP222018 10/16/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 52 53 55 55 52 50 47 45 45 46 47 48 48 48 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 52 53 55 55 52 50 47 45 45 46 47 48 48 48 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 52 53 53 53 52 50 47 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 14 8 8 7 17 20 16 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 -1 7 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 146 169 178 159 188 216 185 215 213 230 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 155 156 157 157 157 155 154 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 52 51 50 45 46 44 53 59 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 40 39 35 10 -9 7 3 11 0 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 101 88 71 42 33 14 17 8 5 5 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 -3 -1 1 1 8 1 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 49 47 44 50 64 101 151 194 224 245 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.1 19.1 18.9 18.7 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.5 104.8 105.0 105.3 105.5 106.0 106.5 107.0 107.2 107.3 107.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 20 21 24 25 29 31 32 30 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 2. -0. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.6 104.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222018 TARA 10/16/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.38 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.49 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 26.7% 23.3% 17.4% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.0% 4.9% 2.9% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 4.7% 10.0% 9.4% 6.8% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TARA 10/16/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##