* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TARA EP222018 10/16/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 60 61 62 62 60 57 54 51 49 48 49 49 50 50 49 V (KT) LAND 55 59 60 61 62 62 60 57 54 51 49 48 49 49 50 50 49 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 62 63 64 64 63 61 59 56 52 48 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 16 13 10 9 9 16 16 19 17 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 1 0 2 5 5 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 130 143 164 163 145 207 178 200 209 225 221 222 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 154 156 157 157 158 158 157 155 154 153 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 7 8 5 7 5 8 5 7 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 54 52 49 47 45 43 47 51 56 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 50 41 37 37 -10 3 12 19 13 34 31 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 84 67 74 47 10 16 0 5 12 20 19 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 2 2 -2 0 -2 2 1 0 0 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 79 79 79 88 98 115 156 204 235 278 295 316 340 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.0 19.0 18.8 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.5 104.6 104.7 104.9 105.1 105.6 106.2 106.9 107.4 107.9 108.1 108.2 108.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 21 21 23 24 26 26 31 33 28 27 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 17. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.3 104.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222018 TARA 10/16/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 7.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.84 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.8% 46.9% 33.7% 24.5% 15.5% 28.4% 18.7% 14.4% Logistic: 4.5% 4.3% 7.7% 4.8% 4.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 7.1% 17.8% 14.0% 9.8% 6.8% 9.7% 6.3% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TARA 10/16/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##