* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TARA EP222018 10/15/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 47 49 49 49 47 45 45 46 48 51 53 55 56 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 47 49 49 49 47 45 45 46 48 51 53 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 48 48 48 47 46 45 44 42 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 18 17 14 8 8 9 13 14 15 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 4 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 117 127 144 168 194 168 186 183 190 222 232 249 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 154 154 156 156 156 156 155 154 152 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 10 7 6 7 5 7 5 7 5 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 59 59 57 52 49 50 49 53 57 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 50 52 46 27 29 -10 2 11 21 15 24 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 83 77 56 61 53 -1 11 3 0 -2 41 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 2 2 7 5 6 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 130 130 130 129 128 147 167 191 238 273 301 295 295 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.4 104.5 104.6 104.7 104.7 105.1 105.7 106.3 107.0 107.7 108.1 108.1 108.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 28 26 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.6 104.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222018 TARA 10/15/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.83 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 24.3% 22.3% 17.0% 12.1% 19.7% 21.1% 32.7% Logistic: 6.8% 9.8% 10.5% 6.6% 5.2% 0.9% 0.2% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 7.8% Consensus: 6.5% 12.3% 11.1% 7.9% 5.8% 7.0% 7.2% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TARA 10/15/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##