* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 70 67 62 48 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 73 70 67 62 48 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 72 70 66 62 50 35 26 22 19 18 20 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 22 25 33 38 34 32 25 13 7 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 11 9 11 6 7 4 8 0 0 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 218 262 276 281 331 346 336 356 10 64 170 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.3 23.9 23.3 22.7 22.4 23.0 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.9 23.8 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 105 102 98 93 89 90 92 92 93 97 97 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 98 94 90 85 79 78 79 80 81 86 86 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -53.5 -53.9 -55.4 -55.5 -55.8 -55.8 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 41 35 30 26 26 22 19 18 15 14 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 27 29 29 27 18 11 9 6 3 1 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 56 36 23 11 14 -41 -56 11 45 46 33 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 38 41 31 23 -20 -10 -33 -31 -30 -13 -9 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -21 -49 -75 -51 -36 -47 -17 -28 -18 -28 -22 -25 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1642 1425 1216 1039 841 543 379 270 256 323 283 401 517 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.3 34.0 34.4 34.7 34.6 33.9 32.9 31.9 30.9 29.9 28.9 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.6 26.6 23.6 20.9 18.2 14.6 13.0 12.4 12.6 13.3 14.8 17.0 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 26 24 23 19 11 6 5 5 7 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 27 CX,CY: 24/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 763 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -22. -28. -33. -36. -40. -42. -46. -47. -49. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -14. -15. -17. -15. -12. -10. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -2. -13. -24. -29. -35. -42. -44. -26. -26. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -13. -27. -49. -68. -76. -80. -83. -81. -60. -59. -57. -56. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 32.6 29.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 508.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/12/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 73 70 67 62 48 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 71 68 63 49 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 68 63 49 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 60 46 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT