* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 55 55 55 43 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 56 55 55 55 43 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 57 54 41 31 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 32 37 45 49 70 71 72 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 11 15 17 4 8 12 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 224 221 230 240 259 285 309 320 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.1 22.3 21.1 19.8 19.5 17.1 16.7 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 106 97 92 87 86 80 79 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 101 93 88 83 82 77 75 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -52.6 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 35 32 31 34 35 33 39 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 27 31 27 20 28 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 39 72 106 124 35 5 -28 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 80 70 39 58 -17 -56 -51 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -46 2 29 44 68 84 76 74 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 71 264 314 354 390 802 1598 929 414 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.3 38.8 40.3 41.8 43.3 45.5 46.6 46.9 47.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.0 70.8 66.7 61.2 55.7 42.8 30.7 20.4 10.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 29 36 40 44 46 45 39 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 22 CX,CY: 20/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -21. -24. -25. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -17. -30. -41. -48. -56. -64. -72. -83. -90. -94. -98. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 3. -5. 4. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -0. -0. -12. -32. -38. -68. -78. -87. -96.-104.-113.-116.-118.-119. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 37.3 75.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 378.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/12/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/12/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 55 55 55 43 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 53 53 53 41 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 51 39 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT