* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 46 43 31 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 46 45 43 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 43 43 42 37 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 32 37 44 47 62 82 84 76 61 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 5 11 15 9 -2 5 16 14 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 224 216 219 230 249 275 303 314 321 317 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 23.3 23.1 21.2 19.2 10.1 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 100 100 92 85 73 80 79 77 76 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 94 95 88 82 72 76 75 72 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -53.4 -54.3 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.4 -1.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 37 34 31 32 37 40 44 45 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 22 24 27 21 20 14 7 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 11 53 96 123 83 27 -5 -44 -63 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 56 90 86 70 27 -36 -71 -29 -19 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -20 -53 -41 -5 36 85 91 158 114 106 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -121 92 214 297 291 344 1232 1134 631 362 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.5 37.9 39.3 40.9 42.4 45.2 46.9 47.6 47.5 46.6 45.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.7 74.3 70.8 66.0 61.2 49.2 36.5 24.5 15.8 10.1 4.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 31 35 39 42 45 43 35 25 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 20 CX,CY: 16/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -11. -26. -41. -52. -61. -71. -81. -94.-103.-108.-111. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. -2. -4. -13. -24. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -14. -27. -50. -75. -75. -86. -97.-107.-114.-116.-118. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.5 77.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/12/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 46 45 43 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 44 42 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 38 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT