* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL152018 10/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 37 33 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 40 37 33 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 37 33 30 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 24 26 26 29 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 7 9 9 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 250 249 246 235 240 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 121 120 119 120 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 114 113 112 113 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -55.3 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 67 65 59 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -54 -58 -51 -52 -44 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 37 35 30 25 -4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 3 1 -1 0 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1829 1897 1965 2031 1984 1865 1755 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.5 35.1 35.8 36.6 37.4 39.3 41.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 3 3 4 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 775 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -26. -26. -26. -26. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -12. -16. -23. -32. -38. -42. -45. -47. -47. -48. -48. -47. -48. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 34.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152018 NADINE 10/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.11 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 5.6% 4.2% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152018 NADINE 10/11/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 40 37 33 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 41 37 33 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 37 33 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT