* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 45 45 45 35 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 37 38 39 39 39 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 37 37 36 36 35 29 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 27 34 37 46 55 68 74 76 65 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 7 8 10 5 5 17 17 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 222 225 219 213 242 263 282 300 307 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.3 23.1 21.9 18.3 16.2 16.3 16.0 15.9 16.0 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 122 99 94 83 79 79 78 76 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 112 92 89 80 76 76 75 72 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.5 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 36 36 34 30 38 40 39 39 54 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 22 24 26 30 27 20 29 20 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 18 19 61 105 126 45 34 32 -17 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 71 60 92 95 37 -24 -39 -52 -12 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -17 -18 -44 -39 -15 76 121 74 29 91 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -230 -107 63 195 253 278 744 1547 840 378 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.6 36.9 38.2 39.8 41.3 44.3 46.3 47.7 48.6 49.0 49.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.0 77.2 74.4 70.3 66.3 55.5 43.2 30.8 20.8 13.2 5.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 26 31 35 38 44 43 38 29 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 21 CX,CY: 15/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -9. -22. -36. -46. -57. -67. -76. -89. -98.-102.-105. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -1. 0. 4. 0. -8. 2. -10. -29. -30. -30. -30. -29. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -10. -29. -32. -57. -87. -96.-106.-116.-123.-125.-126. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 35.6 80.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 320.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/11/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 37 38 39 39 39 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 46 46 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 42 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT