* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 37 35 37 39 41 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 37 32 34 36 38 40 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 37 32 33 32 33 31 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 19 22 27 29 46 57 74 69 67 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 2 6 9 11 12 0 13 10 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 236 222 228 217 234 255 271 293 313 325 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.0 26.4 23.5 23.0 19.5 10.8 16.5 15.7 15.9 15.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 129 123 101 99 86 73 80 78 77 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 117 114 94 94 83 72 76 75 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.8 -51.2 -52.2 -51.7 -50.9 -51.9 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 41 37 36 32 34 39 36 37 46 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 22 21 23 24 31 22 20 28 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 24 21 19 56 113 81 42 30 -6 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 42 56 66 94 47 25 -38 -56 -33 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -21 -16 -40 -28 40 26 -24 3 84 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -191 -183 -93 139 238 309 369 1230 1133 466 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.1 35.4 36.7 38.1 39.4 42.4 45.0 47.0 48.2 48.8 49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.7 79.4 77.0 73.6 70.1 60.6 49.0 36.5 25.0 14.6 4.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 23 27 30 35 42 44 42 37 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 18 CX,CY: 13/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -15. -27. -37. -46. -54. -63. -73. -81. -84. -87. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -11. -10. -6. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -8. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 3. -8. -11. -2. -22. -23. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -10. -8. -6. -4. -24. -39. -37. -65. -70. -78. -88. -95.-101.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.1 81.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -35.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.18 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.20 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 337.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.33 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.49 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 3.9% 2.7% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 1.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/11/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 37 32 34 36 38 40 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 39 41 43 45 47 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 47 49 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 39 41 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT