* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 71 72 73 69 62 48 35 27 20 19 20 28 34 36 36 V (KT) LAND 70 71 71 72 73 69 62 48 35 27 20 19 20 28 34 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 70 71 71 68 61 50 41 35 32 31 32 36 39 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 9 7 5 12 21 30 21 18 13 10 11 9 4 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 2 11 10 3 2 0 1 4 3 2 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 207 203 224 232 212 274 299 345 5 35 60 111 130 186 195 248 92 SST (C) 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.7 23.9 24.0 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.9 24.9 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 113 110 108 106 98 96 96 97 99 104 104 108 109 110 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 104 104 102 100 96 86 83 82 85 88 93 93 95 96 96 98 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -55.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -55.4 -55.9 -56.2 -56.3 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 4 2 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 47 47 48 50 50 38 28 25 22 18 17 17 20 22 26 27 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 30 30 30 28 27 22 16 13 9 7 7 10 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -52 -37 -35 -4 24 34 40 27 7 14 6 -9 -12 -22 -31 -33 200 MB DIV 12 11 12 21 53 30 19 -26 -24 -22 -8 0 9 11 1 -12 -1 700-850 TADV 1 -2 2 -5 -16 -44 -31 -19 -5 12 21 15 22 12 10 0 2 LAND (KM) 2330 2215 2068 1859 1671 1269 974 788 681 649 714 892 1075 1281 1470 1655 1853 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.5 30.2 30.9 31.5 32.4 32.4 31.7 30.8 29.7 28.7 28.0 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.3 37.4 35.5 33.0 30.5 25.3 21.7 19.9 19.2 19.6 21.0 23.4 25.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 20 22 22 19 12 7 5 7 9 11 10 10 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 14 CX,CY: 12/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. -22. -25. -27. -30. -33. -34. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -5. -12. -22. -28. -35. -38. -39. -34. -32. -34. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. -1. -8. -22. -35. -43. -50. -51. -50. -42. -36. -34. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 28.8 39.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.74 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 430.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.05 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 16.1% 10.9% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 6.7% 5.7% 1.8% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 7.6% 5.5% 3.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 3( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 71 72 73 69 62 48 35 27 20 19 20 28 34 36 36 18HR AGO 70 69 69 70 71 67 60 46 33 25 18 17 18 26 32 34 34 12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 68 64 57 43 30 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 57 50 36 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT